Towards a Renewed Local Social and Political Covenant in Libya, Syria and Yemen
Author: Ahmed Morsy (SIPRI)
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
This SIPRI Insights Paper examines the domestic and external factors at play in Libya, Syria and Yemen and their impact on negotiating post-war peaceful settlements and shaping prospective social contracts.The paper’s argument is twofold. Firstly, policymaking must move beyond a static approach to understanding these conflicts. Despite apparent stalemates, the three countries should be approached as ever-evolving simmering conflicts. Secondly, policymakers have to move below the national level in order to achieve various forms of localized social peace. Given the nature of these conflicts and the varied sub-national segmentation, the analysis concludes that community-level social and political covenants may offer a first building block towards nationwide social contracts and sustainable conflict resolution. The role of external actors, particularly the European Union (EU), is critical in paving the way for these locallevel dialogues and negotiations in Libya, Syria and Yemen. In short, external powers, including the EU, should adopt policies that push for long-term resolution to achieve postconflict stabilization rather than opportunistically taking sides.
What is in Yemen for Iran? A Realist Assessment of Tehran’s
Strategic Calculus in the Arabian Peninsula
Author: Maysam Behravesh
A chapter in “Navigating the Regional Chessboard” (Ed. Vogt, Achim & Schmid, Sarah), December 2020
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
This article addresses Iran’s involvement in Yemen from a realist perspective and in the wider framework of the geopolitical rivalry between the Islamic Republic on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and its allies, particularly the United States, on the other. Focusing on the “demand” side of the civil war, or motives and incentives for its perpetuation, it tries to delineate how Iranian leaders perceive Yemen and how Tehran uses this pivotal node of “strategic depth” in the Arabian Peninsula for deterrence, security provision as well as power projection purposes. The article concludes Iran is in Yemen for the long haul and therefore urges a holistic policy approach to conflict resolution that recognizes long-term interests and concerns of all major conflicting parties on the ground and seeks to make Iran’s intervention and involvement in Yemen less necessary rather than more costly.
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