New article on climate change’s impact on water balance in Iran

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components Using Integrated Groundwater–Surface Water Models (Case Study: Shazand Plain, Iran)

Author: Ronny Berndtsson (Lund University), Farzaneh Soltani (University of Tehran), Abbas Roozbahani (University of Tehran), Ali Reza Massah (University of Tehran), Saman Javadi (University of Tehran), Sami Ghordoyee (University of Tehran), Rahimeh Maghsoudi (University of Tehran), Golmar Golmohammad (University of Florida)

February, 2023

MDPI Journal

Abstract

Assessing the status of water resources is essential for long-term planning related to water and many other needs of a country. According to climate reports, climate change is on the rise in all parts of the world; however, this phenomenon will have more consequences in arid and semi-arid regions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, and their exchanges in Shazand plain in Iran, which has experienced a significant decline in streamflow and groundwater level in recent years. To address this issue, we propose the use of the integrated hydrological model MODFLOW-OWHM to simulate groundwater level, surface water routing, and their interactions; a climate model, NorESM, under scenario SSP2, for climate data prediction; and, finally, the HEC-HMS model to predict future river discharge. The results predict that, under future climate conditions, the river discharges at the hydrometric stations of the region may decrease by 58%, 63%, 75%, and 81%. The average groundwater level in 2060 may decrease significantly by 15.1 m compared to 2010. The results of this study reveal the likely destructive effects of climate change on water resources in this region and highlight the need for sustainable management methods to mitigate these future effects.

CMES Public Seminar: Trendspotting “Breakthroughs” in the Middle East

Lund University organises annually a “Future Week” and this year’s theme is “Breakthroughs” in all conceivable forms. Centre for Middle Eastern Studies is participating with a panel of Middle East scholars who will present five trendspotting on a broad range of topics from climate change, migration, human rights, protracted conflict, democratization to peace and regional security.

Report on coming environmental crisis in MENA

What the World Can Do about the Middle East’s Coming Environmental Crisis

Author: Dr. Johan Schaar (SIPRI)
December 14, 2020

The Century Foundation

Summary

In the Middle East and North Africa, the twin problems of degraded natural resources and insecurity reinforce each other in a vicious cycle. In this paper, the author outlines why the international community should stop treating them in isolation. 

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